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Bond market is sending 'distress signals': 3Fourteen Research's Warren Pies

Video vocabulary

counterfactual

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US / ˌkaʊntə'fæktʃʊəl /

UK / ˌkaʊntər'fæktʃʊrl /

C2
  • adjecitve
  • Not supported by the evidence or facts

investor

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US / ɪnˈvestə(r) /

UK / ɪnˈvɛstɚ /

A2
  • noun
  • Person who spends money to help businesses grow

price

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US / praɪs /

UK / praɪs /

A1
  • noun
  • Person's name
  • Cost of something in money
  • verb
  • To determine or set the cost of something

below

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US / bɪ'ləʊ /

UK / bɪˈlo /

A1
  • preposition
  • In a lower position, place, or level

make

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US / meɪk /

UK / mek /

A1
  • noun
  • Product made by a particular company; brand
  • verb
  • To arrange or prepare something e.g. dinner
  • To get to (a place) on time
  • To gain the status of (teacher, lawyer, etc.)
  • To create something by putting things together
  • To earn a certain amount of money at a job
  • To cause or force a person to do something
  • To cause something to happen or be formed

order

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US / 'ɔ:də(r) /

UK / ˈɔrdɚ /

A1
  • noun
  • Religious or social group, as of nuns
  • Instructions to others to do what you want
  • State in which things are neat and organized
  • What you ask to buy, e.g. food in restaurant
  • Social or political control of an area
  • verb
  • To put things in a sequence, e.g. a, b, c
  • To give instructions to others to do what you want
  • To ask for something you want to buy, e.g. a meal

tailwind

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US / ˈteɪlwɪnd /

UK / ˈteɪlwɪnd /

A1
  • noun
  • Wind blowing in the same direction you are going

big

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US / bɪɡ /

UK / bɪɡ /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • Popular
  • Serious
  • Large

bull

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US / bʊl /

UK / bʊl /

B1
  • noun
  • Large male animal such as a cow or elephant
  • Nonsense; untrue or foolish statements
  • verb
  • To push/force something into a certain direction

let

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US / let /

UK / lɛt /

A1
  • verb
  • To allow someone to do something
  • Introducing a suggestion to do something together
  • To rent a house, etc. to others

rate

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US / reɪt /

UK / ret /

A1
  • noun
  • Current price or cost of something
  • Speed or frequency of events over time
  • verb
  • To assess something or consider its qualities

the

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US / ðə /

UK / ðə /

A1
  • article
  • Used to refer to something already mentioned
  • Used to show there is only one of something
  • determiner
  • Used to describe all of a family

kind

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US / kaɪnd /

UK / kaɪnd /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • In a caring and helpful manner
  • friendly and considerate
  • noun
  • One type of thing

how

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US / haʊ /

UK / haʊ /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • To what degree? in what amount?
  • adverb
  • (Used to explain the way to do something)
  • exclamation
  • For what purpose or reason?
  • (Used to ask someone or something's condition)

year

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US / jə: /

UK / jɪr /

A1
  • noun
  • Unit of time equal to 12 months or 365 or 366 days
  • Used to refer to the age of a person

you

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US / jʊ /

UK / ju /

A1
  • pronoun
  • Person someone is speaking or writing to
  • Person or people in general

this

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US / ðɪs /

UK / ðɪs /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • Used to indicate something already been discussed
  • Used to indicate something happening around now
  • adverb
  • An indication by a physical motion or gesture
  • A specific amount of
  • determiner
  • Person, thing, or idea near you
  • pronoun
  • Person, thing that has already been discussed

capital

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US / 'kæpɪtl /

UK / ˈkæpɪtl /

A2
  • adjecitve
  • Main, or major
  • noun
  • Writing the first letter of a word in big letters
  • Official main city of a country, province or state
  • Collective name for money, shares, and assets
  • Money that is used for a business

forward

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US / 'fɔ:wəd /

UK / ˈfɔrwəd /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • Toward what is ahead; in front
  • Acting in a socially aggressive manner; pushy
  • adverb
  • Toward the front in place; in front
  • Toward a future time; to a more advanced state
  • verb
  • To send something to another address or person

into

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US / 'ɪntə /

UK / ˈɪntu /

A1
  • preposition
  • Moving or going inside something
  • In the same direction as; in the direction of
  • So as to become; taking the state of

one

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US / wʌn /

UK / wʌn /

A1
  • pronoun
  • You; we; people in general; someone
  • The thing or person previously referred to
  • adjecitve
  • Used to refer to people generally
  • Being a strong example of (something mentioned)
  • number
  • Number 1

than

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US / ðən /

UK / ðən /

A1
  • conjunction
  • Used to compare two things that are not equal

stress

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US / stres /

UK / strɛs /

A2
  • noun
  • Emphasis on part of a word or sentence
  • Pressure on something or someone
  • A state of mental tension, worry due to problems
  • verb
  • To emphasize one or more parts of a word, sentence
  • To put pressure on something or someone
  • To say your opinion strongly
  • To be in a state of mental tension due to problems

turn

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US / tɜ:n /

UK / tɚn /

A1
  • noun
  • Place where changing of direction happens
  • Your time or chance to perform a duty
  • Your chance to play or do in say a game
  • Unexpected change, as in the weather
  • verb
  • To become (a particular age)
  • To become a different quality, color, etc.
  • To change the direction of something, e.g. a car
  • To move in an opposite direction or position
  • To shape metal with a spinning tool

welcome

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US / 'welkəm /

UK / ˈwɛlkəm /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • Being what was wanted or needed
  • noun
  • Friendly greeting to someone who has arrived
  • verb
  • To greet someone who has just arrived
  • To accept or receive something happily and gladly

surface

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US / 'sɜ:fɪs /

UK / ˈsɚfəs /

A2
  • adjecitve
  • Of the top layer; not deep or meaningful
  • noun
  • Top layer of the ground or of water
  • Nature or emotions that show, but may not be true
  • Outside or upper layer of something
  • verb
  • To give (road) a top layer
  • To appear after being hidden, unseen, or unknown
  • To come to the top of something; emerge
  • To come to the top level of water, mud, etc.

follow

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US / ˈfɔləu /

UK / ˈfɑlo /

A1
  • verb
  • To come after someone; be guided by someone
  • To support someone, e.g. singer or comedian
  • To be the logical result of something
  • To happen after something else happens
  • To believe a set of values or a moral teacher
  • To understand something happening or being said

map

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US / mæp /

UK / mæp /

A1
  • noun
  • Diagram showing the geography of an area
  • verb
  • To draw a diagram to show the geography of an area
  • To find points of similarity between things

low

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US / ləʊ /

UK / lo /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • Having a small quantity, supply, or amount
  • Being unhappy or unpleasant in attitude
  • Not high; being near the ground, or bottom
  • (Of a voice, sound) being soft; quiet
  • noun
  • Situation of not having a lot of something

relatively

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US / ˈrelətɪvli /

UK / ˈrɛlətɪvlɪ /

A2
  • adverb
  • In a manner comparing something to something else

see

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US / si: /

UK / si /

A1
  • verb
  • To go on a date with someone
  • To predict whether something is, or will be true
  • To understand what someone says
  • To use your eyes to look at something
  • To visit a place often for sightseeing or pleasure
  • To visit or meet with someone
  • To find out by waiting or looking
  • To watch (a game, movie or TV show)

backdrop

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US / ˈbækdrɒp /

UK / ˈbækdrɑ:p /

C1
  • noun
  • Contextual meaning or background
  • Scenery hung at back of stage

feed

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US / fi:d /

UK / fid /

A2
  • noun
  • Food given to animals
  • verb
  • To give food, e.g. to animals or a baby
  • To push something through an opening
  • To provide necessary supplies to

history

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US / 'hɪstrɪ /

UK / ˈhɪstəri /

A2
  • noun
  • Established pattern or record
  • Study of past events as an academic subject

handful

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US / 'hændfʊl /

UK / ˈhændˌfʊl /

B1
  • noun
  • an amount of something that can be held in one hand; small quantity or amount of people or things
  • A thing requiring great effort to control, manage

instance

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US / 'ɪnstəns /

UK / ˈɪnstəns /

A2
  • noun
  • An example of something; case
  • verb
  • To give as an example of something else

recently

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US / ˈri:sntli /

UK / 'risṇtlɪ /

A1
  • adverb
  • Just a while ago; not long ago

tech

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US / tek /

UK / tɛk /

A2
  • noun
  • Shortened form of 'technology' or 'technician'

with

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US / wɪð /

UK / wɪð, wɪθ /

A1
  • preposition
  • As an employee of a certain company
  • Against something or someone
  • By using something as a means
  • Due to; because of
  • Including
  • Possessing as a feature
  • Related to
  • (Of the manner/attitude by which you do something)
  • Used to express that people or things are together

almost

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US / 'ɔ:lməʊst /

UK / ˈɔlˌmost, ɔlˈmost /

A1
  • adverb
  • Only a little less than, nearly, not quite

before

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US / bɪˈfɔ:(r) /

UK / bɪˈfɔr,-ˈfor /

A1
  • adverb
  • At a time earlier than the present; previously
  • conjunction
  • In advance of something happening
  • preposition
  • In front of someone or something

have

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US / həv /

UK / hæv /

A1
  • verb
  • To drink, smoke, eat or use something
  • To experience the effects of something
  • To organize an event, or join in an activity
  • To own, possess, or hold something
  • To cause to happen or produce a particular effect

last

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US / lɑ:st /

UK / læst /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • Most recent; the latest
  • The one before
  • adverb
  • Final; with nothing following; after all others
  • Most recent; the latest
  • determiner
  • The one at the end
  • verb
  • To remain or continue for a certain period of time

prior

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US / 'praɪə(r) /

UK / ˈpraɪɚ /

B1
  • adjecitve
  • Existing or coming earlier in time
  • (Of a claim, etc.) more important than another one
  • noun
  • Monk or priest in charge of a monastery

could

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US / kəd /

UK / kʊd /

A1
  • other
  • Past form of 'can' to mean have ability
  • Used to ask for something politely, or to offer

gold

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US / gəʊld /

UK / goʊld /

A2
  • noun
  • Soft yellow metal that is very valuable
  • Person's name
  • adjecitve
  • Dark yellow color often seen in sunsets

foot

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US / fʊt /

UK / fʊt /

A1
  • noun
  • Base of something such as a mountain or vase
  • Length of 12 inches or about 25 cm
  • Lowest part of the leg we use to stand on

know

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US / nəʊ /

UK / noʊ /

A1
  • verb
  • To be familiar with a person or place, thing
  • To feel sure or be convinced about something
  • To discover or be aware of something
  • To be able to distinguish
  • To have knowledge of things

moment

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US / 'məʊmənt /

UK / 'moʊmənt /

A1
  • noun
  • Very short or brief period of time
  • A particular period in time

month

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US / mʌnθ /

UK / mʌnθ /

A1
  • noun
  • One of 12 28-31 day periods in the year

ominous

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US / ˈɒmɪnəs /

UK / ˈɑmənəs /

B2
  • adjecitve
  • Indicating something bad or unpleasant will happen

blow

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US / bləʊ /

UK / blo /

A2
  • noun
  • Something that causes you difficulty or sadness
  • Act of making air come out of your mouth
  • A hit or strike from an object
  • verb
  • To move something using air
  • To make air come quickly out of your mouth
  • To clear something by forcing air through it

quickly

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US / ˈkwɪkli /

UK / ˈkwɪklɪ /

A1
  • adverb
  • Without taking a lot of time; fast

leeway

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US / ˈli:weɪ /

UK / ˈliˌwe /

C1
  • noun
  • Sideways drift, as of a boat from a course

nothing

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US / 'nʌθɪŋ /

UK / ˈnʌθɪŋ /

A1
  • noun
  • Item of little or no value, importance, interest
  • Number or value of zero
  • pronoun
  • Not anything, not a single thing

tell

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US / tel /

UK / tɛl /

A1
  • verb
  • To (strongly) advise a person to do something
  • To be able to guess
  • To say or communicate information to someone
  • To inform, but without speaking; indicate
  • To have a negative effect on someone
  • To order someone to do something; command
  • To recognize something based on certain signs
  • To report something to an authority
  • To explain something or teach someone something

argue

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US / ˈɑ:gju: /

UK / ˈɑ:rgju: /

A1
  • verb
  • To fight or disagree over something
  • To state your reasons for or against an idea

happen

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US / 'hæpən /

UK / ˈhæpən /

A1
  • verb
  • To take place or occur

yeah

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US / jeə /

UK / ˈjɛə, ˈjæə, jɛ- /

A1
  • exclamation
  • Another way of saying 'yes'

first

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US / fɜ:st /

UK / fɚst /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • 1st; Coming before all others in time or place
  • noun
  • Something that has not happened before
  • Position of the winner of a competition

hard

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US / hɑ:d /

UK / hɑː(r)d /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • Difficult to do; difficult to understand
  • (Of facts) not able to be misunderstood; clear
  • (Of alcohol) strong
  • Involving or requiring lots of work, effort, care
  • Being full of pain, trouble, and problems
  • Strong
  • (Of edge) clear; sharp
  • Difficult to bend, break or cut; solid
  • adverb
  • With lots of force, power, or impact

get

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US / ɡet /

UK / ɡɛt /

A1
  • verb
  • To become affected by illness or disease
  • To begin to feel or understand an emotion or idea
  • To send or bring someone or something home, etc.
  • To go somewhere to obtain something
  • To (cause to) do a particular thing
  • To obtain, receive or be given something
  • To currently have
  • To prepare for use
  • To understand something being said or read

particularly

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US / pəˈtikjuləli /

UK / pɚˈtɪkjələli, pəˈtɪk- /

A2
  • adverb
  • Specially; more than others

present

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US / 'preznt /

UK / ˈprɛznt /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • Being in attendance; being there; having turned up
  • noun
  • Gift
  • Verb tense indicating an action is happening now
  • Current time; now
  • verb
  • To introduce someone to others
  • To host a program on television or radio
  • To give a speech or presentation
  • To show something to someone who will examine it
  • To appear or happen
  • To give an award or prize to someone

blowout

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US / ˈbləʊaʊt /

UK / ˈbloʊaʊt /

A1
  • other
  • A sudden malfunction of a part or apparatus

fund

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US / fʌnd /

UK / fʌnd /

A2
  • noun
  • Money collected, saved, or provided for a purpose
  • A specific account into which you put money
  • verb
  • To supply money for something

generational

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US / ˌdʒenəˈreɪʃənl /

UK / ˌdʒenəˈreɪʃənl /

B1
  • adjecitve
  • Concerning people born at about the same time

similar

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US / ˈsɪmələ(r) /

UK / ˈsɪməlɚ /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • Nearly the same; alike

during

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US / ˈdjʊərɪŋ /

UK / ˈdʊrɪŋ, ˈdjʊr- /

A1
  • preposition
  • At some point in the course of an event or thing

then

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US / ðen /

UK / ðɛn /

A1
  • adverb
  • A time that is not now
  • Following another thing in time or arrangement
  • Following on reasonably from what was just stated
  • At that time, not now

fascinating

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US / ˈfæsɪneɪtɪŋ /

UK / ˈfæsəˌnetɪŋ /

B1
  • adjecitve
  • Having your attention fixated as though by a spell
  • Very interesting
  • verb
  • To attract or interest greatly

growth

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US / grəʊθ /

UK / groʊθ /

A2
  • noun
  • Improvement, development in a skill over time
  • A mass on the skin or body part related to illness
  • Act of growing

least

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US / li:st /

UK / list /

A1
  • adverb
  • In the smallest or lowest way
  • noun
  • Something that is of the lowest or smallest degree

right

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US / raɪt /

UK / raɪt /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • Correct or true
  • The south side of you looking at the rising sun
  • adverb
  • Exactly in a place or time
  • Being appropriate for a particular event
  • In a straight or direct manner
  • noun
  • Something you are legally or morally allowed to do
  • Ideal of what is just and good
  • Political view based on conservatism
  • verb
  • To fix something previously wrong or unjust
  • To make upright, as a boat that has turned over

absolutely

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US / ˈæbsəlu:tli /

UK / ˈæbsəˌlutli, ˌæbsəˈlutli /

A2
  • adverb
  • Completely; totally; very

case

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US / keɪs /

UK / kes /

A1
  • noun
  • Container used to carry things, e.g. clothes
  • Set of facts about a crime
  • Set of facts about an event
  • Example or instance of something
  • verb
  • To find out about a place, as in planning to steal

great

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US / ɡreɪt /

UK / ɡret /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • Very large in size
  • Very important
  • Very good; fantastic; wonderful
  • adverb
  • Very good; better than before
  • noun
  • Successful and well-admired person

type

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US / taɪp /

UK / taɪp /

A1
  • noun
  • Printed letters or blocks used for printing them
  • Group of things or people sharing common features
  • verb
  • To identify something belonging to a group
  • To write by touching keys on a keyboard

again

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US / ə'ɡen /

UK / əˈɡɛn /

A1
  • adverb
  • One more time, once more

about

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US / ə'baʊt /

UK / əˈbaʊt /

A1
  • adverb
  • To be ready to; going to
  • Nearly; approximately; roughly
  • Near; next to; close to
  • In every direction; in the area of
  • preposition
  • Concerning or of (a topic)

different

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US / ˈdɪfrənt /

UK / ˈdɪfrənt /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • Not of the same kind; unlike other things

even

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US / 'i:vn /

UK / ˈivən /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • Being equal in influence, power, possibility etc.
  • Being divided equally or fairly
  • (Of teams/contest) with similar chances of success
  • Smooth, level, or regular
  • Can be divided by 2; ending in 2, 4, 6, 8, or 0
  • At a regular, equally steady manner
  • Remaining steady and unchanging
  • adverb
  • (When this is surprising) as well; too
  • (Used to compare two things/stress the difference)
  • verb
  • To make something level; to flatten
  • To make something equal

like

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US / laɪk /

UK / laɪk /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • Being equal in status or kind to something else
  • Similar; the same
  • adverb
  • For example
  • preposition
  • Used as a filler; used to ad emphasis
  • In a way similar to the way something is done
  • Such as; for example
  • verb
  • To want to
  • To find something pleasing; to prefer something

people

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US / 'pi:pl /

UK / ˈpipəl /

A1
  • noun
  • Persons sharing culture, country, background, etc.
  • Men, Women, Children

reaction

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US / rɪ'ækʃn /

UK / riˈækʃən /

A2
  • noun
  • Bodily response to a drug or something eaten
  • Feeling or action in response to something

that

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US / ðæt /

UK / ðæt, ðət /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • The person or thing being talked about
  • Used to identify something both the speakers know
  • adverb
  • Used to reinforce adjectives and adverbs
  • To such a degree
  • conjunction
  • Used to connect a noun clause
  • Used to introduce an adverbial clause
  • Used to introduce a noun clause
  • determiner
  • Used as a noun to refer to something
  • pronoun
  • Referring an object far away
  • Used to refer to the relative pronoun ‘which’

week

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US / wi:k /

UK / wik /

A1
  • noun
  • Period of seven days from Sunday to Saturday

what

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US / wɒt /

UK / hwɑt, hwʌt, wɔt, wʌt,hwət, wət /

A1
  • pronoun
  • Thing or things that; the same kind as
  • Used to emphasize something you are about to say
  • adjecitve
  • Used to refer to a particular amount, or number
  • Used to place emphasis on a particular quality
  • adverb
  • To a certain degree
  • determiner
  • Question words used for asking for information
  • exclamation
  • Used to express excitement, shock, or surprise
  • Used to ask people to repeat something they said

anxiety

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US / æŋ'zaɪətɪ /

UK / æŋˈzaɪɪti /

B1
  • noun
  • Fear about what might happen; worry

yet

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US / jet /

UK / jɛt /

A1
  • adverb
  • At a later time (used after ‘not’)
  • (Used to emphasize that thing is, will be greater)
  • Eventually; at a future time
  • Until now; up to the present
  • conjunction
  • Adding to what has been said, often as a contrast

but

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US / bət /

UK / bʌt,bət /

A1
  • conjunction
  • Used before you say something different, opposite

cut

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US / kʌt /

UK / kʌt /

A1
  • noun
  • Act/instance of reducing the size or amount of
  • Small opening made using a sharp object, knife
  • A wound on someone's skin caused by a sharp object
  • verb
  • To reduce the size or amount of something
  • To use knife or scissors to divide, open surfaces

give

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US / ɡɪv /

UK / ɡɪv /

A1
  • noun
  • Degree of flexibility in something, a material
  • verb
  • To hand over or present something to someone
  • To cause someone to have or experience something

single

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US / 'sɪŋɡl /

UK / ˈsɪŋɡəl /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • Being one only, without others
  • Only; merely
  • Not married or in a relationship
  • noun
  • One run in cricket or a hit baseball
  • An individual song from a CD or album
  • Person who is not married or in a relationship

signal

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US / 'sɪɡnəl /

UK / ˈsɪɡnəl /

A2
  • adjecitve
  • Most important or most noticeable
  • noun
  • Movement of a hand or other means to send messages
  • Act/sound that tells people to do/start something
  • Road-side lights that direct traffic to go or stop
  • Sound and light waves carrying TV and radio data
  • verb
  • To be evidence/an indication something will happen
  • To make a noise or motion to tell someone to start

weekly

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US / 'wi:klɪ /

UK / ˈwikli /

A2
  • adverb
  • Happening, published, or done once a week
  • noun
  • Magazine or newspaper published once a week

whether

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US / ˈweðə(r) /

UK / ˈhwɛðɚ, ˈwɛð- /

A1
  • conjunction
  • If something will happen or not

november

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US / nəʊˈvembə(r) /

UK / noˈvɛmbɚ /

A1
  • noun
  • 11th month of the year

now

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US / naʊ /

UK / naʊ /

A1
  • adverb
  • At the present time or moment
  • Right away or in the next possible moment
  • Used to refer to something that just happened
  • Time between the present and a moment in the past
  • conjunction
  • Resulting from or because of something

panic

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US / 'pænɪk /

UK / ˈpænɪk /

B1
  • noun
  • Overwhelming feeling of fear and anxiety
  • verb
  • To feel sudden anxiety and fear and cannot think

structure

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US / ˈstrʌk.tʃə /

UK / ˈstrʌk.tʃɚ /

A2
  • noun
  • The way in which the parts of a system or object are arranged or organized, or a system arranged in
  • verb
  • To plan, organize, or arrange the parts of something

maybe

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US / ˈmeɪbi /

UK / ˈmebi /

A1
  • adverb
  • Possibly but not certainly; perhaps

not

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US / nɒt /

UK / nɑt /

A1
  • adverb
  • Word indicating the negative
  • (Used to form the negative of verbs)

relationship

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US / rɪˈleɪʃnʃɪp /

UK / rɪˈleʃənˌʃɪp /

A2
  • noun
  • Connection between two or more people or things
  • Way people interact or live with each other
  • Romantic or loving friendship between two people

whole

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US / həul /

UK / hol /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • Complete or full; all of
  • Being in a good condition
  • noun
  • Complete amount or sum; total

can

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US / kæn /

UK / kən,kæn /

A1
  • noun
  • A metal container for storing food
  • other
  • Able to; have the skill to; have the time to
  • verb
  • To have permission to
  • To be possible to do
  • To preserve food by sealing it in a metal container

record

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US / 'rekɔ:d /

UK / ˈrekərd /

A1
  • noun
  • Highest or most extreme level achieved
  • Round plastic disc on which music has been stored
  • History of a person's past actions or achievements
  • verb
  • To indicate a temperature, speed, etc.; register
  • To write down or say what happened
  • To put music, sounds onto a device to store it

towards

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US / tə'wɔ:dz /

UK / 'təuədz, twɔ:dz /

A1
  • preposition
  • In the direction of someone or something

equity

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US / ˈekwəti /

UK / ˈɛkwɪti /

B1
  • noun
  • Condition of people being treated the same
  • Stocks and shares which pay no fixed interest
  • Value of a house, etc., minus the mortgage

really

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US / ˈri:əli /

UK / ˈriəˌli, ˈrili /

A1
  • adverb
  • Used to stress something that is said; definitely
  • In a true or accurate manner
  • Very

stock

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US / stɒk /

UK / stɑk /

B2
  • adjecitve
  • (E.g. of a response) standard; usual; not original
  • noun
  • Animals such as cattle kept for breeding
  • Tasty liquid added to stews, soups etc.
  • Merchandise; goods kept by a business for sale
  • Piece of a business, bought in the form of shares
  • verb
  • To keep some of, as items for sale

would

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US / wʊd /

UK / wʊd /

A1
  • other
  • Used to indicate something imagined
  • Used to ask or request something politely
  • Verb used to indicate possibility, request etc.
  • Used to indicate a preference
  • Used to indicate a reaction
  • Indicates something that occurred repeatedly
  • Used to indicate willingness or ability to do

volatility

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US / ˌvɒlə'tɪlətɪ /

UK / ˌvɒlə'tɪlətɪ /

B2
  • noun
  • Changing from a solid or liquid to a gas
  • Quality of changing suddenly or extremely

behaviour

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US / bɪˈheɪvjə(r) /

UK / bɪˈhevjɚ /

A1
  • noun
  • The way a person or thing acts; manner

save

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US / seɪv /

UK / sev /

A1
  • noun
  • Preventing a player in a game from scoring a goal
  • preposition
  • Except; not including
  • verb
  • To make your computer keep a file
  • To keep for future use
  • To make something unnecessary; prevent
  • To keep money so that you will have it later
  • To keep something for future use, such as money
  • To keep or rescue someone or something from harm
  • To prevent a player in a game from scoring a goal
  • To avoid the unnecessary waste of energy, etc.

dramatic

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US / drəˈmætɪk /

UK / drəˈmætɪk /

B1
  • adjecitve
  • Gripping the attention; causing an effect
  • (Of an event) sudden and extreme

wonder

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US / 'wʌndə(r) /

UK / ˈwʌndɚ /

A1
  • noun
  • Surprise caused by experiencing something amazing
  • verb
  • To feel curious about something
  • To think or consider about something over time

those

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US / ðəʊz /

UK / ðoz /

A1
  • determiner
  • The people or things we are talking about
  • pronoun
  • The objects far from the speaker

banking

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US / ˈbæŋkɪŋ /

UK / ˈbæŋkɪŋ /

A2
  • noun
  • Act of keeping your money in a bank
  • verb
  • To put or keep your money in a bank
  • To turn a plane when flying; (of a plane) to turn

bubble

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US / ˈbʌbl /

UK / ˈbʌbəl /

B1
  • noun
  • A small ball of air inside of a liquid
  • verb
  • (Of a liquid) to produce bubbles, as when boiling
  • To show intense emotion, e.g. excitement, anger

financial

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US / faɪˈnænʃl /

UK / faɪˈnænʃ(ə)l /

A2
  • adjecitve
  • Involving money

fact

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US / fækt /

UK / fækt /

A1
  • noun
  • Something that is known or proved to be true

much

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US / mʌtʃ /

UK / mʌtʃ /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • Very; to a high level or degree
  • adverb
  • A lot; large amount; a high degree of
  • Nearly; basically
  • On many occasions; often
  • noun
  • A large amount; a great quantity

oil

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US / ɔɪl /

UK / ɔɪl /

A2
  • noun
  • A liquid used for frying foods
  • Thick, black liquid in the ground used as fuel
  • verb
  • To add a liquid for frying foods
  • To put liquid in a machine so it will run smoothly

under

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US / ˈʌndə(r) /

UK / ˈʌndɚ /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • In the same place as another thing, but lower
  • adverb
  • In a lower quantity or price than expected
  • preposition
  • According to the terms of an agreement or law
  • Managed or controlled by the authority of
  • Being of a lesser quality or amount than expected
  • Influenced or affected by something or someone
  • Less or lower in age, amount, size or number

strong

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US / strɒŋ /

UK / strɔŋ /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • (Of tea or beer) dark or thick
  • Having big muscles; physically powerful

barrel

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US / 'bærəl /

UK / ˈbærəl /

B1
  • noun
  • A round container with curved sides and flat ends
  • Straight tube from which a bullet exits a gun
  • verb
  • To travel at high speed

well

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US / wel /

UK / wɛl /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • Being in a fortunate, good condition or state
  • Healthy and in good condition
  • adverb
  • In an acceptable, proper, or successful manner
  • In a complete, total, or full manner
  • A great and considerable degree
  • In a successful way, in a good or satisfactory way
  • exclamation
  • Used to begin or continue a particular statement
  • Used to show you want to start saying something
  • Used to express that you are waiting for a reply
  • You say this to change the topic of a conversation
  • Used to indicate you are making a final remark
  • noun
  • Long deep hole in the ground to get water
  • verb
  • To cause your eyes to fill with tears

since

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US / sɪns /

UK / sɪns /

A1
  • adverb
  • At a point before the present time
  • conjunction
  • For this reason; because
  • preposition
  • From the time in the past that

within

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US / wɪˈðɪn /

UK / wɪðˈɪn, wɪθ- /

A1
  • adverb
  • Inside the limits of an area, time or range
  • preposition
  • From the inside of something

brent

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US / ˈbrɛnt /

UK / brɛnt /

A1

just

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US / dʒʌst /

UK / dʒʌst /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • Proper or appropriate; as is deserved
  • Doing or being what is right or fair
  • Legally correct; having enough evidence
  • adverb
  • Almost; nearly
  • Exactly at the time of
  • Exactly (the same as, like)

inflow

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US / ˈɪnfləʊ /

UK / ˈɪnfloʊ /

A1
  • noun
  • Process of flowing in

talk

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US / tɔ:k /

UK / tɔk /

A1
  • noun
  • Style of speaking
  • Discussion between two countries
  • Giving information in front of people; lecture
  • Saying things or ideas to someone with words
  • verb
  • To make a formal speech about something
  • To say things or ideas to someone with words

basis

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US / ˈbeɪsɪs /

UK / ˈbesɪs /

A2
  • noun
  • Main ingredient or part of something
  • Starting situation, fact, idea to develop from

crisis

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US / 'kraɪsɪs /

UK / ˈkraɪsɪs /

B1
  • noun
  • Unstable situation of extreme danger or difficulty

mask

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US / mɑ:sk /

UK / mæsk /

B1
  • noun
  • Covering to hide or disguise the face
  • Way of pretending to behave that is not real
  • other
  • To hide something so that it cannot be seen
  • verb
  • To hide something so that it cannot be seen
  • To keep people from noticing (emotions/intentions)

period

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US / ˈpɪəriəd /

UK / ˈpɪriəd /

A1
  • noun
  • Set amount of time during which events take place
  • A way to emphasize what you will say
  • A full stop (.), marking the end of a sentence
  • A menstrual cycle
  • A set time for a class to be held

never

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US / 'nevə(r) /

UK / ˈnɛvɚ /

A1
  • adverb
  • Not ever; not at any time

for

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US / fə(r) /

UK / fɔr,fə /

A1
  • preposition
  • Used to show the purpose, or need of something

necessarily

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US / ˌnesəˈserəli /

UK / ˌnɛsɪˈsɛrəli, -ˈsɛr- /

A2
  • adverb
  • In a way that is needed/required/is unavoidable

solid

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US / 'sɒlɪd /

UK / ˈsɑlɪd /

A2
  • adjecitve
  • Being able to be trusted; reliable
  • Substance that is hard or of fixed shape
  • Being well made and expected to last long
  • Having no space or emptiness inside
  • Being made entirely of one material or substance
  • noun
  • Something firm or hard; not gas or liquid

double

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US / 'dʌbl /

UK / ˈdʌbəl /

A2
  • adjecitve
  • Concerning or intended for use by two people
  • Two times the amount or degree; twice
  • Made of two parts that are the same, similar
  • noun
  • Person that is exactly like someone else
  • verb
  • To be used for two functions at the same time
  • To make or become twice as much

recession

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US / rɪˈseʃn /

UK / rɪˈsɛʃən /

B2
  • noun
  • Act of moving backward gradually
  • Decreased business activity, when work is scarce

repo

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US / 'ri:pəʊ /

UK / 'rɪpoʊ /

A1
  • noun

picture

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US / 'pɪktʃə(r) /

UK / ˈpɪktʃɚ /

A1
  • noun
  • General situation or state of being
  • Mental image of what something is or looks like
  • Movie; film
  • Painting, drawing or photograph on paper or screen
  • verb
  • To understand or imagine something
  • To imagine someone or something in an image

only

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US / ˈəunli /

UK / ˈonli /

A1
  • adverb
  • Just one; just that amount or thing; not more than
  • Not very important or serious
  • Just that type of thing, person
  • Short time ago; not before a certain time
  • conjunction
  • Except; but

rare

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US / reə(r) /

UK / rɛr /

A2
  • adjecitve
  • (Of meat) cooked, but still red and juicy
  • Unusual or out of the ordinary; not common

two

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US / tu: /

UK / tu /

A1
  • number
  • 2

come

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US / kʌm /

UK / kʌm /

A1
  • verb
  • To arrive at a place
  • (Of mail) to be delivered
  • To move toward someone; go with someone
  • To reach a certain point or state

policy

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US / 'pɒləsɪ /

UK / ˈpɑlɪsi /

A2
  • noun
  • Document stating terms of an insurance agreement
  • Course of action proposed by an organization, etc.

think

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US / θɪŋk /

UK / θɪŋk /

A1
  • verb
  • To have an idea about something without certainty
  • To have an idea, opinion or belief about something

and

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US / ənd /

UK / ənd, ən,ænd /

A1
  • conjunction
  • Used to refer to two or more things
  • Plus; in addition; on top of that
  • Used to introduce an action that follows another

back

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US / bæk /

UK / bæk /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • Farthest from the front e.g. in a classroom
  • adverb
  • Have returned to a place you were before
  • noun
  • The part of a chair that the upper body leans upon
  • Location at the rear of something
  • The reverse of side something
  • Area on the rear of your body
  • verb
  • To bet money on something
  • To go backwards in a car
  • To support and encourage someone or some cause

certainly

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US / ˈsə:tnli /

UK / ˈsɚtnli /

A1
  • adverb
  • Sure; of course

hike

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US / haɪk /

UK / haɪk /

B1
  • noun
  • Large and unexpected increase in price, level etc.
  • A long walk in mountains, etc. for exercise
  • Long walk, often in a rural area, for exercise
  • verb
  • To make a large and unexpected increase in a price
  • To take a long walk in mountains etc. for exercise

lot

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US / lɒt /

UK / lɑt /

A1
  • noun
  • What happens to a person in life from chance; fate
  • A group of people seen together
  • Item for sale at an auction
  • Small area of land used for a purpose e.g. parking

hey

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US / heɪ /

UK / he /

A1
  • exclamation
  • What you say when you want someone's attention

avert

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US / əˈvɜ:t /

UK / əˈvɜ:rt /

B2
  • verb
  • To prevent something negative from happening
  • To turn (your eyes, gaze) away from something

most

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US / məʊst /

UK / most /

A1
  • adverb
  • Very; extremely
  • Greatest possible degree
  • pronoun
  • Nearly all of something

skewed

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US / skjuːd /

UK / skjuːd /

C2
  • adjecitve
  • Not accurate or correct; biased
  • verb
  • To affect data making them incorrect or inaccurate
  • To affect ideas/thoughts making them incorrect

shrug

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US / ʃrʌɡ /

UK / ʃrʌɡ /

B2
  • verb
  • To raise the shoulders to show you don't care

along

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US / əˈlɒŋ /

UK / əˈlɔ:ŋ /

A1
  • adverb
  • As a companion; taken with someone
  • preposition
  • At a point on a line

disaster

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US / dɪ'zɑ:stə(r) /

UK / dɪˈzæstɚ, -ˈsæs- /

A2
  • noun
  • State of extreme ruin and misfortune

from

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US / frəm /

UK / frʌm, frɑm,frəm /

A1
  • preposition
  • Starting at a particular place, time or level

out

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US / aʊt /

UK / aʊt /

A1
  • adverb
  • No longer stylish (e.g. fashion)
  • Away from home, business, or the usual place
  • In a direction/movement away from inside or center
  • noun
  • Act when a batter cannot continue playing
  • verb
  • To tell people a secret

list

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US / lɪst /

UK / lɪst /

A1
  • noun
  • Lean of a boat to one side
  • Series of written names, words or numbers
  • verb
  • To lean to one side, like a boat or ship
  • To present for sale for a specific price
  • To write a series of names, words, or numbers

possible

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US / ˈpɒsəbl /

UK / ˈpɑsəbəl /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • Being able or appropriate for a task or purpose
  • Having a chance of happening, or being true

pretty

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US / 'prɪtɪ /

UK / ˈprɪti /

A1
  • adjecitve
  • Being attractive to the eye in a simple way
  • adverb
  • Very; to a great degree

sub

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US / sʌb /

UK / sʌb /

B2
  • prefix
  • A prefix meaning 'under' or 'instead of'

inversion

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US / ɪn'vɜ:ʃn /

UK / ɪnˈvə:ʒən, -ʃən /

C1
  • noun
  • Change in position so things become the opposite

all

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US / ɔ:l /

UK / ɔl /

A1
  • adverb
  • Completely; totally
  • determiner
  • Being every one of something
  • pronoun
  • 100% of something; the complete amount

drop

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US / drɒp /

UK / drɑp /

A1
  • noun
  • Distance between a higher and a lower level
  • Act of letting something fall (from your hand)
  • A decrease in quantity or quality; reduction
  • Tiny amount of liquid, with rounded bottom
  • verb
  • To drive someone to a place and then drive away
  • To let something fall from your hand
  • To fall or lie down quickly, as when shot
  • To decide to stop something e.g. a course)
  • To (cause to) reduce in quantity or quality

pocket

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US / 'pɒkɪt /

UK / ˈpɑkɪt /

A2
  • adjecitve
  • (As if) small enough to fit in your pocket
  • noun
  • Small cloth bag sewn into clothing to hold things
  • Area of space
  • verb
  • To put something into your pocket
  • To take or hide something illegally

else

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US / els /

UK / ɛls /

A1
  • adverb
  • Otherwise; if you fail to
  • (Of person place thing etc.) besides; in addition

huge

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US / hju:dʒ /

UK / hjudʒ /

A2
  • adjecitve
  • Very very large

move

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US / mu:v /

UK / muv /

A1
  • noun
  • Act of moving a playing piece in chess, etc.
  • An action; doing something
  • Step taken to achieve a goal
  • verb
  • To cause someone to have certain emotions
  • To cause something to change to a different place
  • To change where people live or a business operates
  • To take action to do or achieve something

management

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US / 'mænɪdʒmənt /

UK / ˈmænɪdʒmənt /

A2
  • noun
  • People who are in control of a business or group
  • The process of running an organization

way

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US / weɪ /

UK / we /

A1
  • adverb
  • Used to emphasize the amount of something
  • noun
  • Particular aspect of something being thought about
  • One of various choices that could be made
  • Particular existing condition or state
  • (Often long) distance or length of time
  • How something is done
  • Route to go to a place
  • Small street
  • Usual behavior, emotions or habits of someone

their

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US / ðɛː /

UK / ðer /

A1
  • determiner
  • Belonging to them

option

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US / 'ɒpʃn /

UK / ˈɑpʃən /

A2
  • noun
  • A choice
  • Right to buy or sell at a certain price and time

act

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US / ækt /

UK / ækt /

A1
  • noun
  • What someone did; action; behavior
  • A law or rule passed by a government we must obey
  • One of the parts that a stage play is divided into
  • verb
  • To behave in a certain way
  • To perform on a stage or in a movie

bit

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US / bɪt /

UK / bɪt /

A1
  • noun
  • Device put in a horse's mouth to control it
  • Small piece of something
  • verb
  • (E.g. of fish) to take bait and be caught

attention

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US / əˈtenʃn /

UK / əˈtɛnʃən /

A2
  • noun
  • Taking notice of someone or something
  • (Soldiers) Standing with straight backs

digit

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US / ˈdɪdʒɪt /

UK / ˈdɪdʒɪt /

B2
  • noun
  • Person's finger or toe
  • Written symbol of the numbers from 0 to 9

encourage

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US / ɪn'kʌrɪdʒ /

UK / ɛnˈkɚrɪdʒ, -ˈkʌr- /

A2
  • verb
  • To increase the chance of something happening
  • To make someone more determined or confident

look

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US / lʊk /

UK / lʊk /

A1
  • noun
  • Person's beauty or physical attractiveness
  • Particular style of dress, clothes, or appearance
  • The way someone, something appears to be
  • Act of searching for or examining something
  • verb
  • To appear to be; seem

pay

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US / peɪ /

UK / pe /

A1
  • noun
  • Money you receive from your job, work, etc.
  • verb
  • To give money for goods or work done
  • To give (attention, respect, etc.) to
  • To be punished or suffer for something you did
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between

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  • Introduction to Video Content
  • The bond market has been showing signs of distress, according to Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research. Despite the recent Fed rate hike and high volatility in the bond market, the stock market has remained relatively stable, maintaining its positive trajectory for the year. This is not a typical reaction for the stock market in 2022. Surprisingly, there have been inflows into domestic funds, the largest since November 2022, indicating that many investors are dismissing concerns in the banking sector. However, this may be masking underlying uncertainty. While the tech sector has been performing well, with the Nasdaq up by double digits this year, there are pockets of anxiety in the options market, bond market, and gold market. The inflows into the stock market have primarily been into growth funds, chasing the Nasdaq's performance. Warren Pies expresses concern about the stock market's behavior in light of the bond market, which has experienced extreme movements in yield. The spread between the Fed funds rate and the two-year yield has dropped below 100 basis points, a rare occurrence that usually precedes crisis events.
  • Subtitles section
  • Welcome to you all.
  • Gunjan, we've had a Fed rate hike.
  • We've had really almost record volatility in the bond market.
  • And yet the stock market has been relatively on solid footing.
  • We're up for the year still, up for the week.
  • If nothing else, I guess you could say this is not a 2022 type of stock market reaction.
  • Absolutely not.
  • It's pretty wild to see that we just saw the first week of inflows into domestic funds for the year, the biggest weekly inflows since November 2022.
  • And that just tells you that a lot of people are shrugging off some of these banking fears.
  • And I think a lot of that goes back to the fact that tech seems to be the crisis trade.
  • The Nasdaq is up more than double digits this year.
  • So people are piling back into the stock market.
  • But I really do think that's masking a lot of uncertainty under their surface.
  • And we are seeing pockets of anxiety, whether it's in the options market, the bond market, the gold market.
  • For sure.
  • Yeah.
  • And in fact, those inflows, I think, were very much skewed toward growth funds.
  • So chasing that Nasdaq type move.
  • Warren, I know you're not necessarily particularly encouraged by the way the stock market's acting, given what's happening in the bond market, in the way that whole yield structure has really gotten to some dramatic extremes.
  • Talk about that a bit.
  • Yeah.
  • Thanks for having me.
  • What we've really been paying a lot of attention to since last year is this relationship between the Fed funds rate and the two-year yield.
  • And so this is a great proxy for forward Fed policy and during crisis periods of financial stress.
  • And so most recently, we've seen that spread drop below 100 basis points.
  • And this is absolutely rare.
  • You only see this right before crisis events.
  • So we went back and said, when does this spread blow out to 75 basis points or more?
  • Really, it's a handful of cases.
  • The S&L crisis, the 1990 recession, long-term capital management in 1998, 2001 recession.
  • We saw two of these in the great financial crisis, one in 07, one in 08.
  • We saw one in the 2008 repo crisis, late 2019, and again, right before COVID.
  • So they happen right before crisis periods, this blowout between the Fed funds rate and the two-year.
  • And always, in every case, the market is saved by the Fed.
  • The Fed cuts rates within weeks or at least at the most a month following this huge inversion.
  • And what we saw is the Fed hiking rates just this week.
  • And so this is odd.
  • We're off the map.
  • We've never seen this kind of behavior from a Fed when we have this kind of a signal from the bond market.
  • And I would say it's pretty ominous for equity investors.
  • It's fascinating.
  • I would look at that list of prior instances and maybe push back and say, obviously, they were dramatic.
  • In the moment, they were scary.
  • There certainly was more risk they came along with.
  • But S&L crisis, what, 1986?
  • The economy seemed to weather it OK. 1990, shallow recession, 20% S&P drawdown.
  • Even 1998, some people say the Fed got too easy too quickly given how strong the US economy was.
  • So I wonder if you can say that you don't necessarily have to have the Fed immediately go into panic mode in order to avert a bigger disaster.
  • Yeah.
  • Well, it's hard to always argue the counterfactual and know how history would have turned out if the Fed didn't cut rates.
  • But in fact, every single one of those cases, the Fed absolutely responded to this inversion.
  • And so let's think about 1998 and the LTCM for a moment and think about how much different the backdrop is.
  • Because I see bulls making the case that, hey, the Fed could come in, cut rates right now, and this could reinflate the bubble.
  • Kind of similar.
  • We were up 30% off the inversion for 1998.
  • And so is that possible?
  • Well, think about back then, CPI was sub 2%. Oil prices were at like $15 a barrel.
  • And then two months after that crisis, when the Fed cut rates by about 75 basis points following LTCM, oil prices dropped below $10 a barrel on Brent to make a generational low.
  • So there were a lot of tailwinds within the inflation picture that are not present right now to give the Fed leeway to cut back then.